The 2025 holiday shopping season is poised to be both unique and challenging for retailers11. With a slowdown in overall growth expected—U.S. retail sales are only forecasted to increase by 2.9%$ to 3.4%—brands must adapt their strategies to address consumer caution and evolving habits.
Here’s how to position your brand for success by leaning into key consumer trends, tech advancements, and strategic partnerships.
The Cautious, Value-Driven Consumer
Consumers are still feeling the effects of inflation and are becoming more deliberate and price-conscious in their spending. Concerns over new tariffs have also raised the specter of higher prices, leading many shoppers to plan on buying less frequently or choosing lower-priced goods.
This cautious mindset is driving several key behaviors you need to address:
- Seeking Value: Shoppers will be actively looking for deals, discounts, and overall value. Many plan to spend the same or even less than they did in 2024.
- The Shift to Essentials and Experiences: The focus is shifting away from discretionary items toward essential goods and services and experiences.
- Early Shopping: The trend of starting holiday shopping earlier is expected to persist, with consumers looking for deals as early as October to stretch their budgets.
- The Power of Prime Day: Retailers should consider launching their own promotions around the October 7th-8th Prime Day to capture early holiday shoppers, leveraging the event’s “halo effect” on e-commerce activity.
E-Commerce and Technology: A Seamless Experience is Key
Despite a predicted slowdown in overall growth, U.S. retail e-commerce sales are predicted to set a new record with $7\%$ to $9\%$ growth10. This surge will be largely driven by mobile commerce.
- Mobile Dominance: Mobile is expected to account for over half of all U.S. holiday e-commerce sales12. Retailers need to ensure their mobile sites offer a seamless purchasing experience to capitalize on this trend.
- The Rise of AI: Consumers are increasingly using AI-powered tools for product discovery and comparison14141414. Brands can leverage AI for personalized recommendations, chatbots, and dynamic pricing to attract these tech-savvy consumers.
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): The use of BNPL partners is growing and is expected to be a key component of holiday campaigns16. Incorporating these options can help retailers attract budget-conscious shoppers and drive higher sales.
Last-Minute Partner Prep: Maximizing Reach and Conversions
With consumers prioritizing value, your partner strategy is more crucial than ever.
1. Focus on the Full Partner Mix: While investing in paid placements with top partners is essential for high visibility and high-converting traffic, don’t overlook other tiers.
- Mid-Tier Optimization: Optimizing mid-tier partners is critical for incremental revenue gains, as they represent a significant portion of an affiliate program’s overall performance.
- Long-Tail Activation: Activating long-tail affiliate partners helps diversify traffic sources and is becoming increasingly important for reaching niche, high-intent consumer segments, especially with the rise of platforms like Reddit in search results.
2. Strategic Partner Tactics: Ensure your partners are equipped to capture the budget-conscious consumer:
- Loyalty Partners: Offer aggressive cash back rates during key time periods to remain competitive.
- Coupon/Deal Partners: Provide exclusive codes or early access to key promotions in exchange for additional exposure.
- BNPL Partners: Push your offers early and provide exclusive or vanity codes to capitalize on conversions from high-intent shoppers who are starting their shopping early to spread out expenses.
- Content Partners: Give content partners at least two weeks advance notice of all product and sale details to maximize organic coverage and brand exposure.
Success in the 2025 holiday season hinges on agility and strategic partnerships. Retailers must adapt to a more cautious, value-driven consumer by offering early promotions, seamless mobile experiences, and diverse partner opportunities. By prioritizing innovation and testing, brands can effectively navigate market uncertainties and maximize revenue throughout the peak shopping period.
Download the full eBook right here. and be sure to check out our 2025 holiday hub page as we continue to add resources for even more planning and last-minute optimization tips!
