As we enter the 2024 holiday shopping season, brands are gearing up for what is set to be a dynamic period. The landscape is shifting, influenced by changes in consumer demand, a condensed shopping window, and the ever-increasing importance of early holiday deals. With five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to 2023, brands will need to adapt quickly to maximize opportunities.
Here’s what we expect this holiday season and how brands can prepare.
A Shorter, More Intense Holiday Shopping Timeline
The 2024 holiday shopping season spans 93 days, from October 1st through January 1st, with key shopping dates spread across five major periods. Peak shopping season generally refers to the most active and critical time for consumer spending, when retailers see the highest volume of sales. For the 2024 holiday season, the peak begins in October and spans through key retail moments. This year, the peak retail shopping season is starting earlier than usual, primarily driven by Amazon’s second Prime Day event on October 8-9, alongside Walmart’s holiday sales kick-off on the same dates.
With fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, we predict that consumers will begin spending earlier in the season, potentially shifting significant spend into October. This trend will mirror the earlier shopping days seen in previous years, as consumers look to secure deals and avoid shipping delays.
Spend Across Key Dates
In 2023, nearly half (49%) of retail commission spend (including bonuses) in the Americas during the holiday season occurred between the Sunday before Thanksgiving and December 19th. In the APAC and EMEA regions, the same period saw a 44% share of holiday spending. With the shorter holiday period in 2024, we expect similar patterns, but with an increase in pre-Thanksgiving spending, particularly in October.
The 9-day window between the four days leading up to Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday will continue to be crucial, with Black Friday still commanding the highest daily spend. However, early shopping behaviors could pull some of this spending forward, creating opportunities for brands to capture attention earlier in the season.
Spend Across Partner Categories
In 2023, we saw significant differences in partner category spending across regions. In both the Americas and EMEA, content and loyalty partners dominated, while loyalty partners were particularly strong in APAC. During the critical 9-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, loyalty partners gained significant ground, indicating that consumers are increasingly discovering new brands through these partners.
For 2024, we predict continued growth in Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) partners, with their share of total spend expected to grow from 2-4% in 2023 to 4-6% this year. A recent BankRate survey found that 11% of consumers plan to use BNPL services during the holidays, and globally, BNPL partners are becoming a more prominent channel for publishers.
Commission Rates: What to Expect
Last year, we observed retail brands in the Americas increasing commission rates across all partner categories during the critical 9-day period. This was in response to intense competition for prime partner real estate and consumer attention. While APAC and EMEA saw mixed increases depending on the partner category, the importance of these 9 days was still evident.
For 2024, eMarketer predicts US holiday eCommerce growth of 9.5%, bolstered by recent interest rate cuts. As a result, brands may not need to raise commission rates as aggressively as in past years. Over the last 18 months, commission rates have been slowly declining, and we anticipate a slight year-over-year decrease in peak season commissions, leading to an increase in affiliate channel Return on Ad Spend (ROAS).
Key Predictions for 2024:
Earlier spending: Shifts to October and pre-Thanksgiving shopping periods will be more pronounced this year.
Black Friday dominance: While spending is shifting earlier, the 9-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday will still be a major focal point for brands.
Growth in BNPL partners: Expect BNPL partners to continue gaining traction, increasing their share of total spend from 4-6% globally.
Stable commission rates: While commission rates may be slightly lower overall, expect higher rates during peak days, driving high dollar volume but possibly lower ROAS on those specific dates.
What Should Brands Do to Prepare? (Hint: Watch your data like a hawk)
- Monitor Your Data Closely: Keep a close eye on conversion rates, ROAS, and new-to-file customer rates early in the season. If you see strong early performance, consider shifting more spend into October or pulling forward from post-December 19th.
- Adjust Commission Rates Mid-Season: Reward high-performing partners with increased commissions and scale back for those not meeting expectations. Focus especially on mid-tier partners, as they often provide untapped potential during peak periods.
- Leverage Shipping Offers: With fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, increase the frequency of “Get it by Christmas” messaging, especially for consumers shopping late in the season. Highlight your best shipping offers to drive urgency.
- Audit Loyalty Partner Performance: Given the strength of loyalty partners during critical peak days, conduct daily audits to ensure your cashback offers remain competitive within your vertical. Ensuring strong performance here can capture consumer attention and drive significant volume.
- Be Ready to Pivot: Flexibility is key. If a partner category is underperforming, or if unexpected success arises in another category, adjust your strategy quickly. The ability to pivot and optimize on the fly can be the difference between an average season and an exceptional one.
Final Thoughts
The 2024 holiday season is shaping up to be unique, with earlier spending and a condensed shopping window driving new behaviors. By staying agile, optimizing partner performance, and monitoring trends closely, brands can capitalize on the opportunities presented by this peak season. Now is the time to refine your strategy and get ready for the busiest shopping period of the year.
